Yes, these are real genius prognosticators at work.
2 Insurgents Could Hurt G.O.P. Chances for Senate Takeover
The first race in Delaware, where Christine O’Donnell, a political activist and commentator, is running against Michael N. Castle, who has held elected office in Delaware for 30 years as its governor, lieutenant governor and lone United States representative. The contest originally appeared to be a mismatch...
...Mr. Castle – a moderate who is unambiguously a member of the establishment – was next on their target list. And so Ms. O’Donnell, who already had the support of the Tea Party, last week received endorsements from Republican thought-leaders like Ms. Palin, the National Rifle Association and Senator James DeMint of South Carolina.
In contrast to Alaska, however, where Mr. Miller is the favorite to be elected unless Ms. Murkowski finds her way onto the ballot as a Libertarian or write-in candidate, Delaware is a blue state, and the electoral prospects of Mr. Castle and Ms. O’Donnell there are wildly divergent. Whereas Mr. Castle is nearly a 95 percent favorite against the Democratic nominee, Chris Coons, according to last week’s FiveThirtyEight forecasting model, Ms. O’Donnell would have just a 17 percent chance of winning a race against Mr. Coons.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. If we have a GOP with more Mike Castles in it -- that can't agree on unimportant principles like the DISCLOSE Act (it's only the First Freaking Amendment) -- I'd just as soon have one less Senator.
But Silver and Scher are wrong about pretty much everything, so I strongly suspect that should Christine O'Donnell pull the upset, she'll have an excellent chance of edging her Democrat challenger.
By the way, Nate -- I'm still waiting for my apology from you and Keefus ("Sunday NFL Games Are Watchable Now") Olbermann over Dealergate. After all, Obama's "Car Czar" has admitted that politics played directly into decisions over which facilities were closed.
But I understand your dilemma: you're wrong about so very much -- where would you begin your apology tour?