Here’s the Intrade betting market contract for “Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012.”
As you can see, not only have the odds of reelection fallen, the contract has decisively broken through both its 50-day (brown line) and 100-day (purple line) moving averages. Now, I am not a professional technical analyst. But I am pretty sure that when stocks do that, it’s usually seen as a negative sign, especially if it happens on higher trading volume, the case here.
My personal suspicion is -- if we effectively marshal all of our family members, friends and colleagues -- that Barack Obama will lose in a, yes, historic landslide. It's not just a feeling. It's also data points like Obama edging out an imprisoned felon in a state primary.
We just need to do our part. We need to convince everyone we know the importance of this election. It's not an overstatement that the Republic hangs in the balance: even according to the CBO, a few more years of trillion-dollar deficits will destroy this country.