Could it succeed? Sure.I say that with some caveats:
(a) Buzz should, if a Gmail user opts-in, rip the user's list of Twitter followers and largely recreate the very nervous system of the other network in parallel. And this is a good thing -- it takes advantage of open APIs and fosters competition. I wouldn't worry about a bifurcated market; the platforms will adapt or die. And the competition benefits the user.
(b) The concept of 'fast-twitch' and 'slow-twitch' communications systems running in a unified interface (i.e., Twitter and email, respectively) is consistent with how users operate. Consider Facebook and Google Wave: both provide dashboards of real-time messages integrated with persistent (email-style) messages and/or discussion boards.
Twitter has a massive head of steam, to be sure, but 20 years ago Microsoft appeared to be unstoppable force too. And things are moving much more rapidly now.
I develop software for a living and so speak with some perspective. People like applications to be purposeful and intuitive. People who tend to use email as their primary application tend to follow a "getting things done" approach. They like to keep their inbox clean, contact point to point as needed, and otherwise don't spend hours gazing at their inbox waiting for new mail*. People who use social software tend to be the opposite. They broadcast communicate and like to share openly and do so as a form of recreation.
ReplyDeleteEmail is purpose specific for people who want tight beam communication. Social sites are purpose specific for people who generally are more self important and like everyone to be in on the discussion... not that there's anything wrong with that. ;-)
I happen to use both, and sometimes simultaneously - but I use email as an accessory to facebook because facebook has in the past sucked at showing updates. But when I am using Gmail for mail, I am doing so usually as a purpose specific activity and having yet another counter of things awaiting my attention is both irritating and distressing.
People tend to have a very hard time conceiving of multi-purpose software. Excel does spreadsheets, Word does documents, Lotus Notes does email. FEW people are versed in the fact that you can actually create forms and write programs and automation connecting to databases in all three of these.
Buzz blurs the lines. After playing with it for the afternoon, I began desperately looking for a way to turn it off. Found it, happily, at the bottom of the page... not in the settings where you would expect it.
*except in some very sad cases of email addiction syndrome.