When you think of it in the short term markets are nothing more than a group of people trying to process data and understand what others are doing all under the stress of losing personal wealth... At times like these markets are more about human psychology and less about technical and or macro data...
I believe it is time to fast forward to the fall of 2008. Once again the 2008 market is a road map of how human emotion reacts when credit events happen. When economic data deteriorates at an exponential pace. When the unthinkable becomes reality...
Once again markets are pricing in the unthinkable. In 2008 history witnessed the failure of Lehman, AIG and the GSEs. Today history is bearing witness to sovereign nations on the brink of failure. In 2008 there was the threat of bank runs. Today there is the threat of currency runs. In 2008 there were government bailouts. Today there are central bank bailouts.
Through it all market participants have not changed. They are still a group of individuals trying to process data and understand what others are doing all while real money is on the line. As history has proven once again they will get it wrong. Once again leverage will destroy balance sheets. Denial will get in the way of rational thought. History truly does repeat and the patterns are present in the charts.
Excuse me. I think I have to go to the bathroom now.
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