HMMMMMMMMM: 47 Percent.

Spotted on Teri's Twitter feed (@SoCalGirl):

CBS has the latest Gallup poll data, but suffice it to say that Nate Silver's latest models show a more troubling trend for Romney:

Adding this "spillover" effect into the mix, Obama leads comfortably in Michigan, 165% to Romney's -65%. Similar trends appear in IA.

Silver's models also predicted with a high degree of accuracy that I will be eating at Arby's tomorrow.