Forecasting the Future of the West

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What happens when migration isn't accompanied by assimilation?

The power of AI offers us an ability to forecast the future.

What happens if Western societies allow unchecked inward migration from societies that have no interest in adopting the host country’s norms?

In general, AI sees three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Gradual Cultural Displacement

Setup: A Western region with porous borders sees steady inflows of migrants who maintain their own cultural enclaves, rejecting integration. Local policies prioritize multiculturalism over assimilation, and native birth rates remain low.

• 5-Year Horizon (2030): Tensions rise as enclaves grow into parallel societies with their own informal governance (e.g., community courts, religious schools). Voting blocs emerge, influencing local elections toward policies favoring the newcomers’ norms. Native populations feel alienated but lack political will to respond. Economic strain increases due to welfare demands.

• 20-Year Horizon (2045): Enclaves dominate entire cities or regions. Local laws shift—e.g., restrictions on free speech or gender equality—to accommodate the new majority’s values. Native flight accelerates, leaving behind a patchwork of culturally distinct zones. The “West” here is a fragmented shell, with nominal control but little cultural cohesion.

Scenario 2: Rapid Demographic Takeover

Read the rest at directorblue.substack.com.