Doug Ross @ Journal

Who capped Rafik Hariri?

The Kerry Spot has provided yeoman service in relaying expert analysis of the Hariri assassination. His expert notes that:

The bomb used around 650 pounds of TNT

It was placed in the middle of the road, therefore likely under the street itself and not in a parked car

It was placed in a curve in the road and intelligence regarding Hariri's route and schedule would have had to have been exact

The motorcade had electronic jammers, thus either a wire-triggered bomb or sophisticated jamming countermeasures were employed by the assassins

Hardly the work of amateurs. In fact, the assassination has the hallmarks of a serious, state-sponsored hit. TKS notes that we can therefore dismiss Juan Cole's asinine supposition that Hariri had been involved in a business deal gone sour.

This leaves three potential states that could have been responsible: Syria, Israel, and Iran. The Iranians, conceivably, could have done this to put the west’s attention and heat on Syria. But my guy is skeptical of this kind of bank-shot skullduggery. The risk doesn’t seem to be worth the reward. Israel could have pulled it off, but it’s not clear that they would really want to kill Hariri. He was leading an increasingly-impatient Lebanese people who were chafing under de facto Syrian rule... And then there are the Syrians. The strongest argument against Damascus ordering the hit is that they’re too obvious a suspect. On the other hand, Syria clearly feels as if Lebanon is its backyard or colony, and that they can act with impunity there. In fact, they’ve killed more than a few Lebanese political leaders before... ...while the Syrians didn’t like Hariri, he was surprised that they were willing to kill the goose that was laying the golden eggs. And the economic importance of Lebanon to Syria can’t be understated. About 1 million Syrians work in Lebanon, earning cash and sending it back home. Sending money transactions through Beirut is an easy way for foreign companies to avoid the notoriety of working with the Syrian regime. What’s coming next? Well, the Syrians clearly completely misjudged the Lebanese reaction. A people who were previously terrified of even mentioning Hafiz Assad’s name, (instead they would curse the town he was born in) are now protesting in the streets...

TKS: Straight Stuff on Lebanon and Syria (hat tip: PoliPundit).