Monday, July 02, 2012

Boom: U.S. Manufacturing Plummets ("Unexpectedly"), 0 of 70 Analysts Predicted the Recession-like Numbers

Funny, you wouldn't think policies that sow distrust, uncertainty and fear among businesses would result in this kind of disaster.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the first time since July 2009... "The PMI registered 49.7 percent, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from May's reading of 53.5 percent, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time since July 2009, when the PMI registered 49.2 percent.

...All 70 economists polled by Bloomberg came in on the high side. Collapses are never expected.

The above chart by Doug Short (annotations in red, green, and purple by Mish) shows the importance in not relying on a single indicator as strong evidence of a recession.

Since 1959, the ISM dipped substantially below the 50% mark on five occasions when there was no recession. Moreover, in the 70's oil crisis, a recession began with the ISM near 70. The reverse happened in the wake of the Dot-Com bust as a recession did not start until the ISM was near 40.

The only question that remains: whether the president will blame ATMs, Europe, the Japanese Tsunami, earthquakes, or some new devil for all of his ills.

In November, let's ensure that the "you broke it, you own it" rule applies to the SCOAMF.

1 comment:

The_Bad said...

Taft, dammit. I blame Taft.