Monday, May 21, 2012

Bummer: Obama's Reelection Intrade Odds Plummet Through 50- and 100-Day Moving Averages

Leave it to Jim Pethokoukis -- one of the few remaining real reporters in America -- to note the significance of this particular graph, which likely has David Axelrod replacing his Depends undergarments on an hourly basis.

Here’s the Intrade betting market contract for “Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012.”

As you can see, not only have the odds of reelection fallen, the contract has decisively broken through both its 50-day (brown line) and 100-day (purple line) moving averages. Now, I am not a professional technical analyst. But I am pretty sure that when stocks do that, it’s usually seen as a negative sign, especially if it happens on higher trading volume, the case here.

My personal suspicion is -- if we effectively marshal all of our family members, friends and colleagues -- that Barack Obama will lose in a, yes, historic landslide. It's not just a feeling. It's also data points like Obama edging out an imprisoned felon in a state primary.

We just need to do our part. We need to convince everyone we know the importance of this election. It's not an overstatement that the Republic hangs in the balance: even according to the CBO, a few more years of trillion-dollar deficits will destroy this country.


Doom said...

Did you see the poll from Oklahoma? Oh, that has to have the D.C. mobs in office taking hypertension medicine by the handfulls. I'm surprised someone there hasn't stroked out. If that has feet than almost no Democrat does.

UpChuck.Liberals said...

Interesting, in 'Frisco they're getting ready to name a street after him as soon as he's reelected. It's to be called Dear Leaders Way. It'll be close to the other street they're naming for another worthless politician, it's called Pelosi No Way.

Anonymous said...

If they're naming a street after Pelosi it: 1) has to be a one way street 2) has to be a dead end 3) heavily paved over 4) has to have misleading signs on it 5) can't be anywhere near a Catholic Church 6) has to be lower than the SCOAMF expressway