Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Suffolk Pulls Out of FL, NC, VA -- Says Romney's Edge Too Large; Nate Silver's Arithmetronic Models Hardest Hit

Don't do the happy dance yet, but this appears to be a promising development.

Suffolk Calls NC, VA, FL For Romney, Will No Longer Poll States

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s “The O’Reilly Factor.” “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

Mitt Romney has spiked in the national polls since his first debate last week against President Obama. Romney took the lead over Obama nationally for the first time all year on Tuesday, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, although statistically the two are tied. Romney’s advantage is less than 1 percentage point.

The race has also tightened in the 12 swing states — Florida, North Carolina and Virginia among them — that President Bush won in 2004 but Obama won in 2008, and which will be critical in determining the outcome of the election.

That said, The New York Times' spinmeister pollster Nate Silver still has President Obama up in Virginia by a margin of six-hundred-teen percent; in North Carolina by eleventy; and in Florida by 7.389062145 (with a margin of error of 3/1000th of a binnacle).

As an aside, I tried to reach Taegan Goddard, Paul Krugman and Sandra Bernard (sic) for comment, but I kept getting voicemail.

Take nothing for granted, my friends. All of us -- myself included -- must redouble our efforts. To repeal Obamacare, we must take the Presidency, we must take the Senate and we must hold the House. Every one of our votes counts, in every state. Let's get crackin'.

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