Saturday, November 03, 2012

CHART: The Obama Defectors and What They Mean

Interested in determining how Barack Obama's support has eroded since 2008, The Washington Post commissioned a poll to determine which segments have fled the candidate of Hope and Change.

Overall, the Post-ABC poll found that 13 percent of 2008 Obama voters have decided to back Mitt Romney.

Now, I'm no math wizard like The New York Times' Nate Silver, purveyor of statistical butt-hurt salve for Lefists...

...but let's use a little arithmetic to see what this might mean.

• Obama won the popular vote over McCain, 69,456,897 - 59,934,814.

• 13 percent of Obama's vote represents about 9,300,000 votes

Even if that figure overstates defections by 50 percent, the race is a statistical tie... without any increased Republican turnout. And if we turn out in droves, if we muster everyone we can to try to save this Republic, then I think we may have an election result that truly is... historic.


Jewish Odysseus said...

Actually, my fellow statistical friend, if this analysis overstates the defectors by 50%, then that means ~6 million plus (not 9 million) votes are deducted from Obama and added to Romney a 3 million vote edge.

I believe you meant if it overstates the defections by **100%** (i.e., ~4.5 million defections vs. 9 million) that it winds up a tie.

As I have just blogged, I see a 10%+ edge for Romney, and I give my reasons there. And I used this fascinating WaPo (HAAHH!!) analysis.

Doom said...

Urhm, you mean... historic, again... after the last mid-term? Heh.

Why do I expect the Romney landslide to be a complete "surprise" and totally "unexpected"? Though those terms seem quite familiar, for some reason.