Friday, February 04, 2011

How dishonest is the 9.0% unemployment number? Let's put it this way: a polygraph would explode into 10,000 pieces of shrapnel

Tyler Durden analyzes the labor force dropout rate and comes up with the real unemployment rate:


Probably the last chart to bury any doubt about just how truly horrible today's employment data was, comes from a little observed data metric: that showing the number of people who are not in the labor force, but who want a job now...

...The number just hit 6,643K, a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. These are people that would send the unemployment rate to about 12.8% if they were in the labor force (and, as indicated, looking for a job). Nothing else needs to be said.

Oh, as an aside, the labor force participation rate just plunged to a 26-year low.

At 64.2%, the labor force participation rate (as a percentage of the total civilian non-institutional population) is now at a fresh 26 year low, the lowest since March 1984, and is the only reason why the unemployment rate dropped to 9% (labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186)...

Those not in the Labor Force has increased from 83.9 million to 86.2 million, or 2.2 million in one year! As for the numerator in the fraction, the number of unemployed, it has plunged from 15 million to 13.9 million in two months! The only reason for this is due to the increasing disenchantment of those who completely fall off the BLS rolls and no longer even try to look for a job. Lastly, we won't even show what the labor force is as a percentage of total population. It is a vertical plunge.

About two years ago, I described the destruction of the economy as intentional. At that time, folks didn't believe me.

Most have reconsidered.

Update: Underemployment is 19.2%.
Linked by: Michelle Malkin. Thanks!


The Machiavellian said...

Just look at the unadjusted (raw) U-6 numbers for December of 2010 and January of this year.

They show a big jump in unemployment.

Three trillion dollars in debt sure didn't buy many jobs, did it?

Obama has shutdown our oil exploration and helped to increase our fuel prices.

Inflation is higher than official numbers.

The EPA is attempting to decimate industry through the backdoor implementation of Cap and Trade.

The chilling effect of Obamacare is self-evident.

And the adverse effect of the Federal debt and the Fed's QE are beginning to become more evident.

Our governmental policy is hostile to free enterprise and economy is responding as, as say, Adam Smith might expect.

directorblue said...

Machiavellian -- that's a good point... if you put together a chart contrasting the official numbers with the unofficial ones (say inflation, employment, etc.), you'd have a truly shocking illustration.

By the way, isn't what the mainstream media used to do when Bush was president?