Tuesday, July 05, 2011

Ruh Roh: GM's unsold inventory right back to where it was in late 2008

More awesome economic news courtesy of the central planners in Washington: GM's dealer channel is now stuffed with so much unsold inventory that we're right back to where we were in the dark, pre-rescue days of late 2008.

Perhaps Jeff Immelt will add to General Electric's Volt order and rescue the remainder of GM's product line.

...point blank evidence that the second leg of the economic recovery is now completely debunked, after GM, whose June car sales were up 10.2%, broadly missing expectations of an 18% pick up, but far more importantly, and as we have been pointing out for a year now, the bulk of GM production does not ultimately lead to any sales, but merely more and more channel stuffing in the form of month end dealer inventory which in June just hit 605,000...

[There is no] actual demand which to the chagrin of the Koolaid drinkers is a critical component in determining clearing prices, and which is simply non-existent despite the government's eagerness to provide subprime loans to everyone (or no one as the case may be) who wishes to buy a GM vehicle... Expect the broader media and Wall Street economists (and Joe LaVorgna) to completely ignore this data point as it roundly negates everything the propaganda machine has been spouting for months.

The pain for dealers is real as this report from Bloomberg (the news service, not the idiot mayor) explains.

General Motors Co. (GM) stocked Jim Ellis Chevrolet in Atlanta with plenty of Silverado full-size pickups in early 2011, part of a wager on a strong economic recovery. The strategy is backfiring.

“We thought that this year would bring back the kind of economic activity that would translate into us selling more trucks,” Mark Frost, the dealership’s general manager, said in a phone interview. “It’s not happening.”

Supply of Silverado has ballooned to 6 1/2 months worth at the dealership, a figure Frost, 52, calls “a little scary.” The Detroit-based automaker, 33 percent owned by the U.S. after its 2009 bankruptcy, has 280,000 Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups on dealers’ lots around the country. If sales continue at June’s rate, that would be enough to last until November.

After GM’s truck inventory swelled to 122 days worth of average sales, the company said 100 to 110 will be normal going forward for such a large and complex line of vehicles, compared with 60 to 70 days for most models. Peter Nesvold, a Jefferies & Co. analyst, isn’t convinced. Ford Motor Co. (F), which makes similar trucks, is running at 79 days, and Nesvold says GM averaged 78 days on hand at year end from 2002 to 2010.

It’s unbelievable that after this huge taxpayer bailout and the bankruptcy that we’re right back to where we were,” Nesvold, who has a “hold” rating on the stock, said in a telephone interview. “There’s no credibility.” In a research note he asked: “Is GM falling into old, bad habits?”

You mean that abrogating bankruptcy law, screwing over secured creditors and rewarding Democrats' union supporters with billions in equity, tax breaks and subsidies didn't really fix GM?

Gee, that was hard to predict.

From my vantage point, President Obama may be the biggest crony capitalist ever.

Linked by: Hot Air, Protein Wisdom and Labor Union Report. Thanks!


Mt Top Patriot said...

The illegal alien in the oval office is gonna need to pull another heist on the federal reserve, which is neither, so he can keep the useful idiots in the unions with jobs and hence secure that vote. Because he is fast running out of options that will keep him on his thrown of power and his pals flush with cash.
Whats a dictator to do?
There ain't much of a ready source of funds remaining.

LibertyAtStake said...

Looks like folks is figgerin' out it's patriotic to stiff Gub'ment Motors and buy their vehicles elsewhere.

“Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”

bobby said...

I have to sympathize with them. Who could have predicted that raising prices during a recession wouldn't boost both demand and per-vehicle profit?

Maybe there really is a bondholders' god.

bobby said...

Forgot to type my second point:

On top of their price bump, their strategy of churning out lots of big, gas-sucking eight-cylinder pickup trucks SHOULD have been another sure thing.

With Obama at the helm, all rational people knew that we'd be awash in cheap oil by now, which would have guaranteed that we'd all be looking to buy a new GM B-Hemoth V8. That one was a no-brainer.

Anonymous said...

If you're going to rip-off "ZeroHedge", at least attribute your source.

directorblue said...

@Anon - Hey, schmuck: there are these things called HYPERLINKS, which lead directly to Zero Hedge and Bloomberg, the sources for this piece.

Try, say, clicking on the chart for an example of how HYPERLINKS work.