Friday, September 07, 2012

Real Unemployment is now 11.7%; Propaganda Gap Hits New Record

Tyler Durden deconstructs the Pravda-like numbers excreted earlier today by the "Bureau of Labor Statistics" (if that is its real name):

Today's reported unemployment rate: 8.1%. The reason: the labor "participation" dropped to a 31 year low 63.5% as reported earlier. Of course, this number is pure propaganda, and makes no sense for one simple reason: despite the economic collapse started in December 2007, the US civilian non-institutional population since then has grown by 186,000 people every month on average hitting an all time high of 243,566,000 in August.

These people need a job, and the traditional shorthand is that at least 100,000 jobs have the be generated every month for the unemployment rate to merely stay flat, let along improve. So what does one get when one uses the long-term average of the past 30 or so years which happens to be 65.8%? One gets an unemployment number that is 45% higher than the reported 8.1%, or 11.7%. That is what the real unemployment rate is assuming the US labor participation rate was realistic and not manipulated by the BLS cronies and the Bank of Spain assisted Arima-X-13 seasonal adjustment models. It also means that, as the [accompanying] chart... shows, the spread between the real and propaganda data hit an all time record, which was to be expected two months ahead of America's banker muppet presidential election.

Geez, Tyler, I'm sure the Obama administration would never stoop so low as to manipulate the jobs num - ERROR 3000: DHS FILTER MALFUNCTION - UNAPPROVED CONTENT.

The Heritage Foundation calls the Obama jobs record "dismal" and puts a microscope to the numbers:

Have 4.5 million new jobs been created under President Obama, as several speakers in Charlotte have claimed this week?

A fact check shows that under President Obama, the U.S. economy has created a net 415,000 private-sector jobs—less than 0.2 percent of the 155 million-member American workforce. But even that statistic does not tell the full story, since the workforce itself has shrunk dramatically in size since Obama took office. Labor force participation is at 63.5 percent, its lowest level since 1981. In other words, a large chunk of Americans have simply given up looking for work. A significant number are collecting disability insurance instead...

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported recently that if Congress and the President do not act before the end of the year to prevent Taxmageddon, America will have another recession on its hands in the coming year. With 12.5 million Americans already out of work, imagine a fresh recession.

Taxmageddon, scheduled to hit on January 1, 2013, will be the largest tax increase in American history. It’s a one-year, nearly $500 billion tax hike that will hit businesses, families, young people—its impact will be devastating. Heritage has calculated that a middle-class family of four will see their taxes go up by more than $4,100 just next year.

I suppose this is what happens when you have a president who prefers golf to actual work -- 104 rounds at last count. Think about that for a sec. Who the hell has time for 104 rounds of golf in three-and-a-half years except for retired doctors?

But wait! There's more!

This was not the employment report either American workers or the Obama campaign were hoping for. A huge miss. It shows the U.S. labor market remains in a deep depression, generating few jobs and little if no income growth...

...The unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% from 8.3% [Ed: riiiiiight], but in this case with declines in both the labor force (-368,000) and the household-survey measure of employment (-119,000). With labor force participation falling back to a new cycle low of 63.5%, the drop in the unemployment rate should not be reported as good news.

Let's review: the chart immediately above represents where Obama projected unemployment would be without the trillion-dollar "Stimulus" package.

We literally (to quote Joe Biden) remain in a severe recession. Should Taxmageddon hit -- thanks only to the Democrats' continuous demands for class warfare -- we are destined for a real depression.

Hat tip: BadBlue News.


Matthew W said...

"The New Normal"
It is clear and very obvious for anyone that has active brain cells to see that NObama has been cooking the book.
If NObama wins, he can't unfix the numbers or else the real rate will be shown.
When Mitt takes over the White House, how will he report the unemployment numbers honestly, without making the rate go higher by telling the truth???

Anonymous said...

Doug, this needs music. Here's the perfect accompaniment for all those smoke rings.


Anonymous said...

So the next version of the chart can have a pink line that shows unemployment normalized by participation rate. Kind of like a financial chart that adjusts for inflation.

Of course, if the government did it, it would be like inflation dropping food and energy. Sandra Fluke would count as employed (ceiling inspector) and golf would have to count as work by presidential decree.

jr in wv.

Anonymous said...

I know referencing Obama's rounds of golf does highlight the fact he's an uninterested in the real work of being president. However, that kind of criticism only works if the person your criticizing gives a rats ass about the job. Obama has Czars, and henchmen in Cabinet positions to do the dirty work and has still managed to decree job killing fiats. My wish would be he play golf all the time minus a pen.