Have you been overwhelmed by criticism of the GOP from so-called conservatives? Let's consider the sources: Bill Kristol is a useless coot whose predictions are unerringly off-base. Peggy Noonan is a yenta. Rich Lowery is a sellout. And David Brooks isn't worth the three seconds I just spent typing this sentence. All of them are more worried about invitations to glitterati parties than they are in saving this Republic.
In the face of liberal agitprop campaigns, they wet their Depends and run away.
I'm not down. I feel good. Let's consider where we are in this campaign cycle.
The Professional Left has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the Romney campaign. It prematurely ejaculated an October Surprise -- "the 47 percent" recording -- weeks too early. It's hysterically marketed other similar, trivial statements as campaign-ending for Romney.
But the campaign isn't over and those weren't gaffes.
Though you wouldn't know it from Sixties media, the three biggest verbal gaffes this month all were uttered by Barack Obama:
3. On Univision, Obama admitted that he "can't change Washington from the inside."
2. On the David Letterman show, Obama claimed he didn't know the amount of the national debt, a terrifyingly large burden on the young and future generations
1. On the issue of the 9/11 terror attacks in Libya, Obama and his administration have been caught in a series of lies and cover-ups.
The debates are coming. You got a "47" gaffe? I'll top you with a "57" (remember how candidate Obama said he hoped to visit all 57 states?).
Obama without TOTUS is like Joe Biden without the hair-plugs. Romney has been tempered through the fires of a dozen, hard-core, debate melees.
And Obama has had precisely zero debates and, for that matter, hasn't even entertained a serious interview in years. Without practice -- and with his increasingly questionable work ethic -- I have a prediction to make:
Obama is going to stumble in these debates. He will stumble badly. And he will reveal himself.
Furthermore, when you come right down to it, he's an easy mark. He has a record he must try to defend. And that record is downright ugly. He can blame Bush, Tsunamis, ATMs and the Euro for all of his failures, but if he tries, he'll sound even more like an unpresidential loser than usual.
The combination of being confronted with his failures -- one after the other, with no real way to spin or lie without blatantly appearing as a charlatan -- along with his documented case of Aggressive Narcissism results in my Lock o' the Week prognostication:
Obama will seriously stumble in these debates. It will be cringe-worthy.
Oh, and then there are the polls. The polls that seem to magnify each "gaffe" a thousand-fold to stifle Republican optimism. Well, polling expert John McClaughlin offers the straight scoop as to what we're seeing there:
On what a realistic partisan breakdown would look like: “The 2004 national exit polls showed an even partisan turnout and Bush won 51–48. Had it been the +4 Democratic edge of 2000, John Kerry would have been president. 2008 was a Democratic wave that gave them a +7 partisan advantage. 2010 was a Republican edge. There’s no wave right now. There are about a dozen swing states where in total millions of voters who voted in 2008 for Obama are gone or have not voted since...
...There are also hundreds of thousands of voters in each of several swing states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and others who voted from rural, exurban or suburban areas in 2004 for Bush who did not vote in 2008, because they were not excited by McCain or thought he would lose. They are currently planning to vote mainly as a vote against President Obama.”
What Obama and his allies are doing now: “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR [Interactive Voice Response] polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are ‘not enthusiastic’ to vote or non-voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this. Then there’s the debate between calling off a random-digit dial of phone exchanges vs. a known sample of actual registered voters. Most polls favoring Obama are random and not off the actual voter list. That’s too expensive” for some pollsters.
That's not all. I think we'll see a couple of related, interesting anomalies in this election:
• The impact of a phenomenal drop in households with landlines, which badly skews polling
• The return of the Bradley Effect
• The return of the Reagan Democrats, in this case, union members who realize their jobs are at stake, but tell the pollsters they're voting with the bosses and actually pull the lever for the GOP
• A much larger percentage drop in the Black vote for Obama than anyone's anticipating (see Why Romney Is Going to Romp over Obama in November)
As much as old media tries to tell us that Obama is a sure thing, he's actually anything but.
Which is why, for example, he's in... Wisconsin this week.
Mitt Romney is going to win this election. Write it down. Take it to the bank.
But before you do, send 'em a couple of bucks. We have a country to repair.
Absolutely, 100% on target. Leftist oversampling every day, all day results in a bogus perception this clueless diot is ahead when right now, he couldn't be elected dog catcher.
I like the analysis and the optimism. If Romney doesn't win, you can be sure it is rigged. I am sure you have heard of Tom Fife, probably just a hoax, but if you haven't read his essay, Google him.
I had completely not counted the debates when I made the same prediction you are getting at. I have not watched anything political, let alone pop or "news" for a long time, actually I don't have cable t.v. hooked to my 46 tv, and don't want it. TV is for gaming! But the debates? I'm thinking popcorn and YouTube. I haven't seen a good comedy in years!
If he doesn't lose we are in some serious trouble. It won't be him, if he is bad enough. It will be what that means about the electorate and future prospects. The best one could hope for, in such a scenario, is a coupe.
I've written it before and I'll write it again" Obama is an egotistical, narcissistic sociopath. At least Nixon, despite being a paranoid megalomaniac, put the USA first and got stuff done ;-)
Thanks for reading!
Agree with everything except points 1 and 2 of your final points.
1.> Bradley Effect. I don't think this is a factor, as I don't think it was in 2008. We told ourselves that to explain the polling in 2008, but in the end we were wrong.
2.> Landline skewing... You actually didnt come out and make a prediction here. But I think this could actually hurt us. As just anecdotally, it seems to be younger people who are more apt to ditch the landlines. But I think it's a guess at this point, and just further credence that the polls are unreliable.
The polls are more than unreliable ... they are 100% propaganda. Give them as much credibility as you would a memo from Dan Rather.
My recently deceased golden retriever could beat the traitor in chief in a fair election. The only way this turd could win is massive voter fraud. The msm are harping how close this race is, I call B.S.. Citizens that are paying attention are angry and have been for a while. Not just older people but a lot of young adults as well, notice I said adults. Pretty sure there are a lot of voters who will vote for whats his name, O. But in my opinion the majority will vote for Romney and make 08 look like dems did well, regardless what the fraud said this is still a Christian majority that feels threatened.
OOPS! meant did well in 2010. Sorry!
I'm very worried about the voter fraud too but one thing that makes me feel better is how hard Obama is campaigning. He's obviously worried about real votes. Republicans and former Obama supporters are more motivated than ever too - remember Scott Walker, Chick Fil-A and the 2010 election. The press is covering up the R/R events too - people are waiting in lines 4 miles long to see them!
There may be a few more shoes to drop in the real world as well:
1. Economy is sagging into recession again. Fed Ex just lowered guidance as well as Norfolk Southern Railroad. QE3 will do nothing for the economy, how could it? The Fed lends money to the banks at 0%, they buy bonds from the Treasury with it and then the Fed buys them back. Lather, rinse, repeat. This is the financial analog of a dog chasing his tail.
2) The Middle East is just getting warmed up. Egypt and Pakistan are saying publicly what "we" must do to change and make them like us. The balance of power there has changed. They are going to press their advantage and make Obama's foreign policy look even worse.
You forgot "You Didn't Build That" -- that entire statement, from "you think you're so smart" and the condescending, contemptuous way it was delivered still infuriates me. I think it should be added to your list of Obama's worst "gaffes." One thing about Obama -- they are not gaffes -- these are revealing statements showing Obama's true colors.
Great article -- thank you!
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